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madrox 1 days ago [-]
My roots are in Louisiana, and this makes me incredibly sad. It is such a unique place that has no like, and drives all tourism in the state. Where will tourists celebrate Mardi Gras after it's gone? Baton Rouge?
Sadder, still, to know that nothing will be done. No one will be relocated. Just one day a weather event like a hurricane will happen to destroy the area and it will be labeled derelict with no funds to rebuild. People will be left to fend for themselves.
fsckboy 1 days ago [-]
>People will be left to fend for themselves
actually, i think you have it exactly backward. anybody who lives in the areas expected to be affected can move now, starting tomorrow. make a 6 month plan to move. a year. make a three year plan to move. but they won't. then when a disaster does strike, there will be funds made available to help them, but they will complain that it's not enough, that they deserve more, why, look at all the hopes and dreams they poured into the neighborhood as evidenced by the savings, investments, and preparations they have made...
you are preaching helplessness and they're eager to learn it.
californical 1 days ago [-]
Generally I agree, and we’ve known this for a long time but people stay in denial. It’s the same thing in Miami.
Unfortunately though, the solution isn’t that easy.
For one, if you own property there, you’re basically either caught holding a bag with life changing amounts of money lost, or trying to pass it off to another sucker which just feels unethical.
For two, families and communities make it hard for people. Many rely on their friends and family as support systems. Elderly for example, may only have their family taking care of them and their poker night friends are the only ones they have left - if they go somewhere, that system becomes fragmented and people get left behind. Maybe you are the main caretaker of an elderly relative, so you can’t leave them behind, but if they follow you then they lose the rest of their network.
I’m sure there are tons of other reasons but just knowing there’s an imminent threat at some vague point in the future is sometimes not enough for people to willingly go through all of the suffering that I mentioned above, and more that I’m not metioning
foobarian 1 days ago [-]
Systemically, the problem is that there needs to be a last person, and yet people leaving expect market value for their homes which normally happens by selling to the next person. The last person can currently only get the money if a disaster strikes and insurance pays out. To do it ahead of schedule, insurance would have to pay out sooner, which means there would have to be some kind of government intervention to make it happen.
tzs 1 days ago [-]
Maybe the state could make it so the last person is someone who has no plans to ever leave, such as an elderly retiree. It could work like this.
• The state identifies neighborhoods that will need to be abandoned in a few decades and puts them in a program to turn them into retirement communities. A person who owns a home in such an area can sell it normally if they want to anyone who will buy.
• If an elderly retired person is interested in a property in that area they have the option of instead of buying it themselves from the seller having the state buy the property, and they then pay the state. The state gets title to the property and the retiree gets the right to live in it until they die.
• If the retired person wants to leave before they die (or has to leave because they can no longer live on their own or the time has finally come that the property must be abandoned), they are offered free room and board for life at a state managed assisted living community.
• If they left for a reason other than that the property has to be abandoned the state opens it up to another retired elderly person on the same terms. The new person pays what a similar property in a place not under threat would sell for, and they are now set for housing for the rest of their life as long as they stay there or transfer to state managed assistant living.
• To further make these properties attractive to elderly retirees the residents should not have to pay property taxes and utility rates should be capped. Maybe also toss in a free shuttle service to minimize the need for cars so people don't have to leave just because they are no longer able to drive safely.
egypturnash 1 days ago [-]
The state in this case is Louisiana.
personalcompute 1 days ago [-]
I think GP might be using "state" in the common international English definition, e.g. state in the sense of "sovereign state" or "city-state", not "US state". I would agree with you though that any US government actually implementing the idea today is hard to imagine, but I can easily imagine that after 2 other cities suffer a climate-related disaster first, then there will be the political will to bring a program like this to life. It's a creative policy idea, I love the thought that was put into this.
tzs 23 hours ago [-]
Louisiana is just the state with a major city closest to the point of it having to be abandoned. There will be more that follow in other states, such as Florida.
datadrivenangel 1 days ago [-]
Great idea until we have to save grandpa from Katrina 2.0.
bayarearefugee 14 hours ago [-]
> The last person can currently only get the money if a disaster strikes and insurance pays out.
Usually there is no insurance.
The insurance industry, for all of its other faults, is one of the few left that still deals in reality instead of vibes so they aren't going to give you affordable insurance against floods/hurricanes/etc in these areas with any real coverage.
jermaustin1 13 hours ago [-]
They aren't going to give you affordable insurance even in places that don't generally get hit by floods/hurricanes/etc.
I have a house in Louisiana (up "north") - outside of a couple tornados every few years, and the heavy rains of a hurricane every few years, it is a fairly "safe" place. Never been a claim against the property, or any immediate neighbors. We aren't in a floodplain of any sort, and are on top of a hill that is around 120 feet above the closest creek.
My premium has gone up 250% over the last 3 years (after being steady for a decade). Shopping around, they are even higher. I think they are finally starting to catch up with where they needed to be for years, but I can't help but feel I'm offsetting the people "down south" with their more expensive property that is literally underwater.
kyboren 12 hours ago [-]
> I can't help but feel I'm offsetting the people "down south" with their more expensive property that is literally underwater.
I am not sure about Louisiana, but you very well may be.
State insurance commissions sometimes promulgate onerous regulations that effectively require cost shifting. For example, if it's profitable to keep operating in a state overall, but you can't raise premiums or drop policies for the riskiest properties, then you just raise premiums across the board and let the less-risky subsidize the unprofitable policies.
And rising reinsurance premiums mean that everybody pays more to account for increasing risks and costs in the insurers' portfolios, which may be concentrated in riskier areas far from your own property.
GJim 21 hours ago [-]
> only get the money if a disaster strikes and insurance pays out.
People in New Orleans have affordable flood insurance?
tardedmeme 23 hours ago [-]
What if you sold your property to a soulless property development investment fund?
bdangubic 1 days ago [-]
> For one, if you own property there, you’re basically either caught holding a bag with life changing amounts of money lost, or trying to pass it off to another sucker which just feels unethical.
every day you wait this gets worse and I am not sure what is unethical about selling a home. many people have to move (e.g. for work) but if it would put you mind at ease (ethically speaking) you can put a disclaimer on the listing. of course you also have an entire political party followers who believe all this is a hoax so you can put that on the listing too /s (last sentence)
fsckboy 1 days ago [-]
>if you own property there, you’re basically either caught holding a bag with life changing amounts of money lost
but notice people can gain life changing amounts of money by lucking into real estate that soars, but there's no sense of injustice.
if you allow people to take risks and reap the benefits, but shield them from loss, you end up with a subprime mortgage crisis all over again.
if people wanted to be protected from loss they should have to sign up on the front end to risk pool with other people who want to be protected from loss, and together they can protect each other by limiting gains jointly
tardedmeme 23 hours ago [-]
The people who gain money are mostly gamblers but the people who lose money are mostly people who just wanted a place to live without going bankrupt over it.
AnimalMuppet 1 days ago [-]
Yeah. There's a market. If there are enough buyers for the market to function normally, then there are enough people trying to get in that one more house won't make much difference.
I mean, yes, in your seller's disclosures you should tell the truth, including about the flood risk. If people want to take that, eyes wide open, I'm not sure what's unethical about selling to them.
bdangubic 1 days ago [-]
Also why just flood risk? Is it unethical for me to sell my Condo which is in “up and coming area” which never upped and never came and has a very high crime rate (with/without disclaimer)? My friend lives in another area where schools are as bad as it gets, she is looking to move now, unethical to sell that too (with/without disclaimer)?
LargeWu 1 days ago [-]
The difference is that schools, crime, etc., are all what they are right now. It's there, it's verifiable. Anybody buying in has access to the full information. They can walk around the neighborhood and see for themselves.
The flooding and inevitable destruction of the city is decades away. It's still abstract. Some people might even think it is preventable.
I don't think it's unethical to sell. People have their own motivations. Maybe a buyer just wants it for 5 years, who knows. Probably the risk will get baked into market price. What does need to happen though is the federal government needs to step up, because they're the only ones who can, and guarantee they will buy it for a certain percentage of appraised market value. I would imagine that percentage will decline over time until they declare the city a total loss, after which your property is declared worthless. If they do this now, they can make it possible for people to leave with some semblance of dignity and mitigate hardships.
wat10000 1 days ago [-]
Is it unethical to lie in order to sell something? Yes, yes it is.
This sort of puffery is relatively minor and is thus not tremendously unethical, but it is unethical.
bdangubic 12 hours ago [-]
> Is it unethical to lie in order to sell something?
what exactly is a lie in this context specifically I wonder?
wat10000 9 hours ago [-]
> “up and coming area” which never upped and never came
Is this so difficult that you can't even detect your own lie specifically constructed as an example of it?
bdangubic 2 hours ago [-]
I would not put this on my listing, what are you smoking mate?! (I own a condo in brightwood park in northwest dc, been sketchy since 2008 when I bought it, you need an address? lol)
AnimalMuppet 11 hours ago [-]
In your scenario, "up and coming" is specifically a lie.
bdangubic 2 hours ago [-]
no one really lied to me, most certainly not the seller. blame my wife for that one :)
mort96 1 days ago [-]
This is decent advice on an individual level. Despite the fact that you probably can't sell your doomed house for a lot due to the current situation, planning a move is probably a good idea for those who can afford it.
But it's not really a solution on a population level. For one, if everyone sold their house because it'll soon be underwater, who'd they sell their house to? Aquaman? For two, a lot of people just won't be able to afford an expense like that. A large portion of the US lives paycheck to paycheck, and it's not easy to "just save up" a few hundred thousand when that means giving up on basic necessities.
doug_durham 1 days ago [-]
And how exactly will someone do that. Many of the people living in the impacted area are below the poverty line and living paycheck to paycheck at best. How are they supposed to put together funds to relocate. Especially if their property is worth nothing. The minority of people privileged enough to be able to relocate will do that. The majority are stuck.
alex43578 1 days ago [-]
[flagged]
munificent 1 days ago [-]
> If you’re genuinely that poor, moving is cheap. Abandon the implied worthless property, catch a greyhound out of town.
When you're genuinely poor, your local community is a critical survival tool that can't be discarded. You've spent your whole life building a set of relationships through mutual help. When your car dies and you can't afford to go to a mechanic, you have a friend of a friend who can fix cars who owes you one since you helped replace his fence a few years back. That kind of thing, but every day, in a hundred ways.
Throwing that out to move to a city where you have nothing is a great way to end up homeless.
alex43578 1 days ago [-]
And by this article, staying in New Orleans is a great way to be poor, lose that network, and still end up homeless and literally underwater again.
Nobody is making them move, but moving out of New Orleans certainly seems like the better play, even if it carries risk.
wat10000 1 days ago [-]
If you’re genuinely poor then moving is cheap when viewed by someone who isn’t poor.
Moving as a renter isn’t free. You’ll need to come up with a security deposit and coming up with two months of rent at once is not easy. Your slumlord landlord is going to keep your old one regardless of merit or law, so don’t think you can use that money. Convincing a new landlord that you’re a good risk is also not going to be easy when you’ve just moved and don’t have a job, so you’re looking at spending on a hotel for a while unless you’re lucky enough to know someone well enough to couch surf.
alex43578 22 hours ago [-]
If the article is to be believed, nobody is getting their deposits back in the coming decades when everything is under water. But again, if you genuinely can't move with a decade or more of notice because of a security deposit, there's something deeply wrong with how you are managing money and making decisions.
wat10000 17 hours ago [-]
Oh yeah, I forgot that it’s their own fault that poor people are poor.
alex43578 16 hours ago [-]
If, with 10 years notice, you can’t pull together a deposit, first/last month’s rent, and the $50 for a U-haul to move out of a city that will literally end up underwater, yes - it is your fault.
wat10000 15 hours ago [-]
Thanks for demonstrating the ongoing justification for this username.
hackable_sand 1 days ago [-]
You are wildly out of touch
lioeters 23 hours ago [-]
"Catch a greyhound out of town" is the "Let them eat cake" for the poor and homeless (sorry "unhoused") of New Orleans. Empathy is for the weak, said the oppressor.
alex43578 22 hours ago [-]
Billions have been spent rebuilding New Orleans once. Per the article, there's no realistic way to save New Orleans going forward. It's sad, it's unfortunate, it's reality.
The poor and homeless of Louisiana are already receiving massive benefits: 4th in the country for the share of households on welfare, 18% of the population on food stamps, $14B+ in FY23 of federal dollars went to welfare/TANF/Medicaid/etc.
ykonstant 20 hours ago [-]
Damn, those poor and homeless are really living it up.
alex43578 18 hours ago [-]
Is the solution to further mortgage working and contributing citizens' futures via our exploding national debt, just to throw more cash at them? California spends $40K+ a year, per homeless person, but saw the homeless population grow and the problem get worse.
For welfare, consider that a single parent with two school-age children who earns $11,000 annually from part-time work ends up qualifying for $64,128 in cash, aid, and benefits.
The same family earning $64,128 by actually working wouldn’t be eligible for any of these welfare benefits in four-fifths of the states.
lioeters 11 hours ago [-]
For $14B+ we could have solved poverty and homelessness for all of New Orleans. Where did the money go? Not to the poor, obviously. The system is broken by design.
habinero 1 days ago [-]
Move with what money? And go where? If they have property, sell to who, exactly? "Instant" lol.
Gently, you talk like someone who's never even been broke, let alone been poor.
alex43578 1 days ago [-]
A greyhound to Atlanta is $75. It’s not nothing to someone on a minimum wage/fixed income, but would be attainable within two months by saving about a dollar a day. Keep in mind, that’s the “extreme global poverty” standard for countries like South Sudan.
Sell to whomever - but again, what property do they have if they are so poor they can’t afford a $75 bus ticket with notice?
It’s always a Schrödinger’s poor person who simultaneously has a valuable property that’s also worthless, tied to a job but has 0 income, has a car but can’t travel, and is broke but can’t qualify for the plethora of government benefits they can receive anywhere.
adi_kurian 1 days ago [-]
You should go to St Roch or Treme and inspire the locals with your dynamism. You could even bring bootsraps!
selimthegrim 1 days ago [-]
He’s not inspiring me, and he won’t inspire their pitbulls. And by the way, I fulfill all of his Schrödinger’s poor person criteria, except for the first one about property. And I’m far from the only one here.
rayiner 1 days ago [-]
The “majority” of people aren’t so poor they can’t move over the multi-decade timescale this article is talking about. This country has a huge level of internal migration. 17 million Americans move every year.
Why do people have these blinders where they can’t view any issue except from the perspective of the minority of people who don’t have any resources? Why are so many people moving to places like Florida that are threatened by climate change?
AuthAuth 1 days ago [-]
>Why do people have these blinders where they can’t view any issue except from the perspective of the minority of people who don’t have any resources
I believe its because these people are young and repeating what they hear or they are old but have lived an insulated life and assume that people really cannot handle any upset in their life.
wat10000 1 days ago [-]
It’s not about being unable to view the issue except from that one perspective. It’s about having an aversion to mass suffering, and recognizing that this group will be subject to it.
You’re basically saying, why are you so worried about all of these people who will have their lives destroyed when there are a bunch of other people who will be totally fine? I hope that when it’s put that way, you can see how ridiculous it is.
rayiner 1 days ago [-]
No, it's an emotional obsession with small percentages of the population that makes it impossible to discuss realistic solutions to problems that affect everyone.
New Orleans is going to be underwater. That problem won't just affect poor people, it will affect everyone. So the first order of business is to encourage anyone who can do so to leave New Orleans to go somewhere that isn't underwater. That's the policy that's going to avoid the greatest amount of harm to the greatest number of people at the lowest cost.
wat10000 15 hours ago [-]
What is there to discuss? If you have the ability to move away, then you move away, done.
We aren't discussing this particular group because we're a too emotional to think straight. We're discussing this group because it's the one that will bear the brunt of the suffering and it's the one where there isn't an obvious "just let them figure it out and it'll be fine" solution.
rayiner 13 hours ago [-]
You’re both undervaluing and overvaluing collective action at the same time. We know from experience with people in disaster-prone areas that the majority aren’t going to do that. They’re going to stay, and when the disaster comes, it will be a huge problem and they’ll demand the Army Corps of Engineers performs some miracle to help them.
danaris 22 hours ago [-]
> it's an emotional obsession with small percentages of the population
Ah, right: it's a small percentage of the population, so we should just let them die, "and decrease the surplus population", right?
This kind of callousness is one of the biggest problem with the tech industry today. We learned to think in numbers, and some of us never learned to think about the people behind those numbers.
Yes, there are some kinds of problem where you really have to think about the numbers, and not the people, because if you try to save everyone you will end up saving no one.
This is not one of those.
The people who can move now, without financial hardship, get to make their own choices about when and whether to get out. The people we, as a society, should be thinking about are the people who cannot get out—either without financial ruination, or at all—because they are the ones we as a society must help.
Tragically, given the state of America today, we aren't likely to help them. And many of them are likely to die, whether by drowning when the next Hurricane Katrina inundates New Orleans, or by slow starvation and disease when they and everyone else in their community and support network are left homeless.
rayiner 17 hours ago [-]
> The people who can move now, without financial hardship, get to make their own choices about when and whether to get out. The people we, as a society, should be thinking about are the people who cannot get out—either without financial ruination, or at all—because they are the ones we as a society must help.
This is exactly the problematic thinking I’m talking about. Your obsession with using society to help those whose problems are the most intractable leads you to conclude to majority should be left “to make their own choices.”
But the most effective use of social action is helping the majority. They can benefit from social organization and their problems are tractable. Here, leaving the majority to its own devices is going to cause the most damage in the long run. Society should push them to make good choices and relocate in an orderly manner while there’s time.
danaris 12 hours ago [-]
I assure you, the proportion of New Orleans residents who would be able to leave now without financial hardship are not the majority.
Even for reasonably-stable middle-class people, moving—especially out of a place like NOLA—is going to cause financial hardship.
rayiner 11 hours ago [-]
We don't need them to "leave now." We don't need them to move to California. We need them to move to Baton Rogue over a period of decades. Under a high emissions scenario, sea level is projected to rise 6 feet by 2100. New Orleans is on average 1-2 feet below sea level (up to 10 feet). Baton Rouge is 60 feet above sea level. The average elevation of the state is 100 feet.
In any given year, 15% of the population moves, and 40% of them move to a different county. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/why-people-mo.... It's insane to say that most people wouldn't be able to make a once-in-a-lifetime move just a couple of towns over sometime over the next few decades.
selimthegrim 11 hours ago [-]
Baton Rouge is partially on a bluff. But didn't you see the 7m map? The coastline will be lapping at St. George, southern EBR Parish along Burbank Road and the south part of LSU campus at that point.
LargeWu 11 hours ago [-]
This is true. It is also true that waiting until things bottom out will make things even worse. It will be more expensive and options will be more limited.
There will need to be a federal bailout to relocate everyone who needs help. The government should also probably announce a policy that there will be no future disaster relief that involves rebuilding, only relocating.
New Orleans will be the first, but not the last American city to collapse. Miami is probably next. Salt Lake City could very well run out of water, nevermind the increasingly toxic lakebed. Phoenix too. In the next hundred years people are going to learn why environmentalists use the word "sustainability" so much.
Nasrudith 20 hours ago [-]
You're demonstrating the point I'm afraid. Rather than think of anything which can help 90%, you obsess on calling the people who want to save 90% of the people evil instead of thinking of anything to reduce the 10% further.
human_person 1 days ago [-]
But that ignores the mass suffering that pushing people to move will prevent?
It’s not
why are you so worried about all of these people who will have their lives destroyed when there are a bunch of other people who will be totally fine
It’s
Why aren’t you worried about everyone having their life destroyed, if we can encourage people to move it may be challenging for them but it will save their lives.
habinero 1 days ago [-]
Because, friend, a lot of people believe climate change is a lib conspiracy theory.
And people bring it up because a lot of folks in New Orleans couldn't afford to flee Katrina and 700 people died. It was kind of an enormous humanitarian disaster. If we don't talk about it, nothing will happen to stop it.
kelseyfrog 1 days ago [-]
Aquaman is going to have to buy a lot of homes.
chabes 1 days ago [-]
Sell it to who, Ben? Aquaman?
estearum 1 days ago [-]
This is why the federal subsidies for flood insurance need to end
acdha 1 days ago [-]
We should have a one-time buyout for flood zones: pay someone enough to buy a median home somewhere similar and turn the land into a nature preserve (let mangroves return to protect Florida coast, etc.). Put a cap on it so we’re not buying new mansions for a few rich people with beach houses but otherwise keep it simple so people aren’t impoverished into becoming a drain on society.
I have no expectation that we’ll be willing to invest in our neighbors, though.
ungreased0675 1 days ago [-]
I thought the government should have done this for all the beach houses that were destroyed by hurricane Sandy. Buy people out and prevent a house from being built there ever again.
phainopepla2 1 days ago [-]
I wonder if there are any good ballpark estimates out there for what this would cost
fanatic2pope 16 hours ago [-]
A couple of ballrooms. Maybe half an Iran war or a Venezuelan coup or two?
estearum 1 days ago [-]
I like it!
quickthrowman 16 hours ago [-]
Agreed, building on a flood plain is incredibly stupid. The city of East Grand Forks demolished all of the buildings in the flood plain portion of town after the 1997 Red River floods and turned it into a park. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Grand_Forks_Greenway
2ndorderthought 1 days ago [-]
Have you seen housing prices lately? It's insane for the average person especially if no one will be buying your home and you still have a mortagage
fsckboy 1 days ago [-]
so, you're talking not about renters but about homeowners, and you're saying housing prices are up everywhere else except they are down in New Orleans? I'm not from NOLA so I'm not going to bone up on prices, but I do doubt what you are saying holds water.
Rebelgecko 1 days ago [-]
why would someone buy buy a house if they think it's literally going to be underwater soon?
AuthAuth 1 days ago [-]
You say this but there are still a lot of sales for houses in these areas
2ndorderthought 19 hours ago [-]
Keep an eye on the sales number before and after this article drops. Something tells me it will not be going up.
vintermann 15 hours ago [-]
For less and less, presumably? Or is the housing situation so bad that prices rise even when the area will soon be underwater?
It doesn't even matter, really.
Suppose one person follows the sage advice of the HN glibertarians, sells his house and moves out. Good for him. But does this solve the problem? No, because now there's someone else there. Possibly a more desperate, poorer person. They can't all follow your advice, no more than they can all be best in their high school class, run the fastest in the marathon, or being on the winning side of a prediction market bet.
AuthAuth 7 hours ago [-]
Yes but I feel a lot less bad for the person who sells there house and moves now than the person moving in. Basically what I was trying to show is that the option is still available and people are choosing not to take it so can we really act like they're all trapped in this situation.
2ndorderthought 1 days ago [-]
Thank you for spelling it out.
roywiggins 1 days ago [-]
They can just sell to Aquaman.
1 days ago [-]
Yizahi 15 hours ago [-]
What an incredibly out of touch post. This gives off "let them eat cakes" classic. Do you realize how expensive is it to move out of your home? I won't write a laundry list of items here, since you either know all of them already or will dismiss outright with the same attitude. I do want to say is that social darwinism is not something to be proud about.
vintermann 16 hours ago [-]
If someone sells their house in an area soon to be underwater, will you buy it? If not you, who? Aquaman? (Apologies to HBomberMan).
The reason people don't move is that for the time being, they're much, much better off than if they move. Especially if they start moving in large numbers.
squibonpig 1 days ago [-]
Either this is ragebait or you're arrogant. Congrats on being a super smart hard worker or whatever you're so proud of. More interested in shitting on people to feel superior than understanding where they're at.
danaris 22 hours ago [-]
No, you are condescendingly proposing individual solutions to a systemic problem.
b00ty4breakfast 1 days ago [-]
Nice dog whistle, bud. Just come out and say it instead of dancing around it like a coward.
neonstatic 1 days ago [-]
> but they won't
Then they will look for someone to blame. The usual scape goats are the government and society.
fmobus 20 hours ago [-]
You talk about "blame". Were they the ones that made the decisions causing the current ecological disaster?
Society fucked up, and that fuck up is gonna affect a lot of people who are not able to move out. Some sort of bailout will be needed.
neonstatic 5 hours ago [-]
> Society fucked up
Like clockwork ;)
rayiner 1 days ago [-]
I don’t understand this formulation of “no one will be relocated.” People have agency to move themselves. Maybe not everyone, but if the majority of folks started moving out due to the risk of flooding then that would create a strong impetus for the government to assist poor people in relocating.
habinero 1 days ago [-]
> a strong impetus for the government to assist poor people
Haha. I'm gonna guess you're not American.
selimthegrim 11 hours ago [-]
He is all too American.
TitaRusell 1 days ago [-]
That's the story of the Netherlands. Entire cities and even islands have disappeared under the sea.
Humans always rebuild.
yread 23 hours ago [-]
I would argue lost cities are a story in the margins of the story of the Netherlands. The main story would be a move from building towns on little hills that don't get flooded most of the times to building systems to actively manage water (wind- and steam-powered pumps) and flood defenses (Afsluitdijk, Deltaworks). Netherlands never had as much land as it has now so the balance is definitely on reclaiming rather than losing.
xnx 1 days ago [-]
> Where will tourists celebrate Mardi Gras after it's gone?
Somewhere above sea level?
People should live wherever they want but is rude to expect others to be responsible for thei expectedly risky flooding, fires, earthquake, hurricane lifestyle.
shrubble 24 hours ago [-]
Mardi Gras actually originated in Mobile, Alabama; and it is celebrated with big parades and "krewes" all along the Gulf Coast, at least as far as Pensacola, Florida.
SkiFire13 23 hours ago [-]
Mardi Gras actually existed (and still exists) in Europe before the USA were even founded.
moralestapia 12 hours ago [-]
On the flip-side, the urbex that will come with that will be amazing.
lovich 1 days ago [-]
[flagged]
picometer 1 days ago [-]
The state is not going to drown. The polity of urban New Orleans is the liberal thorn in its side, and that's the area at risk.
lovich 1 days ago [-]
[flagged]
ungreased0675 1 days ago [-]
All that rage is going to burn you up kid.
lovich 1 days ago [-]
[flagged]
selimthegrim 1 days ago [-]
You really think Orleans Parish was behind that?
lovich 1 days ago [-]
I don’t care. Actions have consequences and the actions of Louisiana as a state have the consequence of making me viscerally hate them.
New Orleans is a major economic center for them so I hope they lose it and are impoverished forever.
If you don’t like the politics you should leave.
If you can’t I grieve for you.
If you can but love the region then you need to take the good with the bad.
If you enjoy the political leaning and live there I’ll throw you a barbell once you start drowning.
I’ve already had to move from my home region for economics and it’s seeming like I’ll need to leave my new home again so I am not saying this from the position of someone whose never been forced to leave.
ryan_lane 1 days ago [-]
New Orleans is extremely blue. They're the ones having their rights stripped away by the rest of the state.
You're part of the problem here.
lovich 1 days ago [-]
No, Louisiana is.
If New Orleans is extremely blue, but can contribute nothing but political power to authoritarian assholes, then they need to leave or figure out someway to fight.
Sucks to suck, but the liberal Louisianians arent helping atm.
ryan_lane 23 hours ago [-]
How can you fight when your power has been taken away from you? The reason I'm saying you're part of the problem is because you're blaming victims for the situation they're in without realizing that you're up next, and others like you are going to scream "why aren't you doing MORE TO HELP?" while you're screaming "Why isn't anyone helping ME?".
Southern states have been stripping people's rights away for decades.
lovich 22 hours ago [-]
> How can you fight when your power has been taken away from you?
In ways I can not articulate on US social media sites without being permabanned.
If you are giving power to the authoritarians and doing nothing to stop it, then you are effectively the gasoline in my enemies tanks. I wish it wasn't so, but that is how reality is.
selimthegrim 20 hours ago [-]
Without going into too many details, I can tell you that the state laws of Louisiana have gotten a lot more preemptively fascist with regard to any sort of organization which you would describe
lovich 6 hours ago [-]
Don’t need to tell me. It’s a shit state with shit politics.
Doesn’t even follow the line of common law legal system the rest of the states use and is based on some French legal ancestry.
stockresearcher 1 days ago [-]
> Where will tourists celebrate Mardi Gras after it's gone?
Mardi Gras is celebrated all along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Pensacola. Go to a parade in Alabama, for example, and every third or fourth person will be from New Orleans - looking to escape the tourist nightmare their city becomes.
In other words, hopefully nowhere ;)
madrox 1 days ago [-]
My point is that maybe tourism is a nightmare, but it drives a lot of the economy...something Louisiana can't take for granted.
Every king cake I've ever had was in Shreveport, but you and I both know tourists won't be flying there.
dmm 1 days ago [-]
"""
“New Orleans is not going to disappear in 10 years or anything like that, but policymakers really should’ve thought about a relocation plan a century ago,” said Dixon
"""
People have seen this coming for a long time. Here's a classic article about the channelization of the Mississippi by John McPhee from 1987: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20636254
bypdx 1 days ago [-]
Rather than relocate, we can make discussion of climate change illegal or just tax the blue states to build a sea wall around the entire city
_doctor_love 1 days ago [-]
For me it's similar to having red tests in my build - it causes me a lot of anxiety to see all the breakage. Plus it shows down shipping. So now I just delete them, feel better already.
crystal_revenge 1 days ago [-]
> discussion of climate change illegal
Well discussing it was de facto banned on HN for many years (still wouldn't be surprised if this post disappears soon).
Any climate change post that was anything other than "everything is fine because of electric vehicles/solar/wind/etc", especially if it dare suggest that the situation was dire, would quickly get 'flagged' by the vocal minority (but still surprisingly large group of people) on HN who don't want to believe in climate change. Years ago, on different accounts, I would complain about HN's status-quo enforcing censorship logic, only to be boo'd away. This community is, at it's heart, one that has been a part of the process of encouraging climate change.
I stopped complaining when I realized that nobody is seriously interested in tackling climate change (where you have to keep fossil fuels in the ground), so we're going to experience the full consequences of it (and yes, it does pose an existential risk). The annoying part is that people will continue to deny anything is happening no matter how aggressively visible real the impacts are.
At this point there really is no reason to discuss climate change any more, most people really can't deal with the reality of what it represents (even people who think they are 'green').
otterley 1 days ago [-]
Discussing climate change has never been banned; this sort of claim is easily disproved by even the most cursory of searches in the box below. Try it.
Here, I’ll say it right now: climate change is real, it has deleterious effects on our world, and we should take collective action to mitigate or even reverse it.
Now, there’s an expectation that commenters conduct themselves appropriately and contribute to the overall well being of this site. If a person misbehaves when discussing this or any topic, that’s when they get spanked.
nielsbot 1 days ago [-]
> de facto banned
seems a little strong, but I understand why they say this
> climate change is real, it has deleterious effects on our world, and we should take collective action to mitigate or even reverse it.
plenty of comments on HN to this day will disagree, saying climate change is some anti-progress conspiracy or hasn't been studied enough or won't be that bad, etc etc.
otterley 1 days ago [-]
It’s ok to disagree. Disagreement isn’t verboten here. In fact, I’ve been reading the book Unsettled by Stephen E. Koonin which calls into question the consensus on climate change and the author makes some great points.
nielsbot 4 hours ago [-]
If the consensus is this lopsided I think it’s time to accept it. There are plenty of contrarian arguments, especially from oil companies who have a vested interest obviously) and they haven’t turned the consensus around despite their best efforts.
Also, due to the risks associated with climate change, doing something now as a societal insurance policy is prudent. Not to mention that polluters are necessarily infringing on the property and human rights of everyone else.
danaris 22 hours ago [-]
If this was true years ago, it is not anymore. There are plenty of stories, and posts, about climate change.
And over the...I dunno, something like 9 years? I've been here, I have observed a distinct but gradual shift to the left in the overall tenor of conversation. Things do change, even here.
esperent 20 hours ago [-]
Hackernews progresses one carmudgeon funeral at a time.
> “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,” said Turnbull [the Prime Minster of Australia]
tbrownaw 1 days ago [-]
Was he wrong? That sounds like it was about some sort of mandatory-mitm scheme or ban on e2e encryption. Like, yes, you can pretty easily make it impossible for the government to decrypt your bits, but the government can just as easily arrest you for it.
greycol 8 hours ago [-]
No he was saying he doesn't care that creating a backdoor for encryption means anyone can use that backdoor and that you must both follow the law by being secure but also follow the law by being insecure. People arguing that that creating encryption that both did and didn't have a backdoor was impossible got that little gem in return.
Apropos that, I remember that James Lovelock said basically the same about Australia as this article says about New Orleans: living there is not sustainable, you should all leave.
TacticalCoder 1 days ago [-]
> Rather than relocate, we can make discussion of climate change illegal or just tax the blue states to build a sea wall around the entire city
There's a museum in New Orleans that has a Katrina display and it turns out that they did indeed call in Dutch experts to advise them. The Dutch gave them sensible ideas like building low elevation parks that could flood without issue and hold lots of water, instead of concrete spillways and drainage that just moves water fast until it fails catastrophically when inundated. Louisiana being Louisiana, it was all ignored.
The museum convinced me that New Orleans is doomed in so many ways. Everything from the Atchafalaya ORCS to the paving over of wetlands to build the city to the destruction of the Plaquemines marsh lands to the southeast of the city all seem to be maximally unhelpful for preventing storm damage.
TitaRusell 1 days ago [-]
The reality is that New Orleans is simply not important enough.
Even the biggest ultra conservative GOP voting redneck will have to admit that America can't survive without NYC which is why it will get it's seawall.
snowpid 19 hours ago [-]
This is very fascinating from a cultural viewpoint. Some cities in Europe are important just for the history and not economy like Venice, or lesser extent Rome. When the Russian attack started, people moaned about the old buildings and the culture in Kyiv. (Ofcourse the attack itself was inmoral).
What I get is New Orleans has an unique culture and history. Most people in the US dont think it is worth to preserve?
sjs382 13 hours ago [-]
When you look at who the rest of Louisiana voted for, they don't even want to preserve New Orleans. They're literally terrified of it and were elected on the promise to subjugate it.
Most people in the US think everybody should have access to basic healthcare but we haven't been able to make that happen.
Something like saving New Orleans probably doesn't stand a chance.
snowpid 14 hours ago [-]
I mean this is a sign of the flawed political process.
But even in a working democracy if people arent interested, politican mostly wont care. So Americans dont think New Orleans is worth to preserve?
criddell 13 hours ago [-]
I've been reading more about New Orleans situation this morning and my thinking is changing. It would be nice if we could preserve it, but I didn't really understand how bad the situation is. I don't think it's possible and spending should be focused on relocating people from the area.
New Orleans is probably going to be a fairly small island 20 miles offshore that gets drowned by hurricanes every few years.
comrade1234 1 days ago [-]
I would be surprised if the USA is even able to plan far enough ahead to put in a sea barrier/gates in time to protect New York City, similar to London. New Orleans? At least the old town is elevated.
This project in NYC has been going on for a bit. The difference is LA has a GDP of about $340B+, while NY has a GDP of $2.3T+.
kevin_thibedeau 1 days ago [-]
The Whitney museum has a whole system for putting up flood walls around the perimeter, plus the ground floor is just the gift shop.
1 days ago [-]
munificent 1 days ago [-]
New York City will be fine. New Orleans is fucked.
For local stuff like this, the US isn't a country, it's 50 countries in a trenchcoat, and Louisiana is very different from New York.
1 days ago [-]
selimthegrim 1 days ago [-]
munificent grew up just outside the city IIRC.
munificent 11 hours ago [-]
Yup.
calibas 1 days ago [-]
Our long term plan is for Jesus to come back and fix everything.
I wish I was joking...
marcosdumay 1 days ago [-]
AFAIK there's no fixing in the plan. They just expect Jesus to take them away and finish breaking everything down so everybody else suffers.
I don't normally interact with people that believe that. But from a distance it looks like the second half is about as important as the first.
nielsbot 1 days ago [-]
I do think there are plenty of religious people out there who minimize the ill effects of climate change, believing (hope against hope?) that God would never let mankind destroy itself. Good luck with that.
rasz 1 days ago [-]
Isnt he already running the country now?
ChoGGi 1 days ago [-]
No, that's a healer.
actionfromafar 1 days ago [-]
And war in the middle east is going to make it happen faster!
estearum 1 days ago [-]
Way too many Americans either don't know or disbelieve that a substantial chunk of the body politic, and now our elected and military leaders, actually literally believe this type of stuff.
IMO any eschatological beliefs whatsoever should be 100% universally disqualifying for any political or military position, no matter what book title or special ancient zombie character they're filed under.
notabotiswear 1 days ago [-]
“Leaders” who believe this kind of stuff don’t end up running developed states. It’s the leaders who know how to make use of morons who believe this kinda stuff who do.
actionfromafar 21 hours ago [-]
Hush now, you'll hasten the Antichrist.
estearum 18 hours ago [-]
Eh, no. Trump of course has zero actual ideology, but there's pretty solid reason to believe e.g. Hegseth and Mike Johnson actually believe this type of stuff.
MengerSponge 1 days ago [-]
That's the short term plan, baby! The long term plan is to be the elect who get raptured first.
dmm 1 days ago [-]
Not even old town is safe.
“Even if you stopped climate change today, New Orleans’s days are still numbered,” he added. “It will be surrounded by open water, and you can’t keep an island situated below sea level afloat. There’s no amount of money that can do that.”
Type 1 is often an island situated below sea level.
For instance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flevopolder . Island. Surrounded by open water because that's actually a good idea. Below sea level. 400 000 inhabitants. 2 cities, major agriculture, minor airport.
Ever wanted to grab dinner on the sea floor? Visit Almere Center. Though lots of people find it to be a bit boring in person.
Want the same sort of thing in the US? Consider dropping the Jones act. Right now it's illegal to bring the equipment that builds these things into the US.
HWR_14 1 days ago [-]
The Jones act doesn't prohibit anything about bringing ships into the US to construct things. The closest reason I can think of you thinking that is it allows injured sailors to sue for damages. Maybe that equipment leads to a huge number of injuries?
So a crane like this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvicq-kvVbw ; it picks thing up and sets thing back down. In US waters? Verboten ("nee meneer, helaas verboden", in this case). Sure there's workarounds with barges sometimes; but it gets silly.
Jones act and more specifically dredge act even: you're moving stuff inside US territorial waters.
Both cases it's not (or barely) made in the US, and you can't hire the big crews from elsewhere. There's no competition, and this has resulted in no incentive to learn, keep up or even try.
Exactly, we haven't even bothered or cared to rebuild much of Katrina's damage.
whyenot 1 days ago [-]
I am increasingly pessimistic about the long term future of the US. What are the chances that we will still be one country in a generation or two? Trump might have poured gasoline on the fire, but the federal government has been in decline for years. Congress is completely dysfunctional. The filibuster prevents the senate from doing anything. The president is at war with the civil servants and more interested in grift, punishing percieved enemies and erecting monuments to himself instead actually leading.
Addressing climate change requires massive changes and a lot of political courage. There is none.
oscillonoscope 1 days ago [-]
There is no legal mechanism left that could correct course at this point. You would need to have a constitutional amendment to drastically reshape government and that's DOA. All that's left is snow decline and eventual dissolution
dragonwriter 1 days ago [-]
The absence of a legal mechanism does not imply the absence of a mechanism (or even the absence of a peaceful mechanism.)
While there is a legal process for amending the Constitution which, as you note, is likely intractable in the status quo conditions, Constitutional change—whether peaceful (even if there is the implicit consequence of force if compromise is not reached) or not—historically and globally is often an extralegal process that is retrospectively legalized, rather than a legal process under pre-existing rules.
iamnothere 1 days ago [-]
A sufficient crisis could trigger an Article V convention, which already has a large amount of states pledged to join, but the changes coming out of such a convention probably aren’t going to be good for the public.
dragonwriter 14 hours ago [-]
An Article V convention is a legal process and Amendments proposed by such a convention have the same ratification threshold (which is the barrier, not the proposal threshold in Congress) as Amendments that are Congressionally proposed.
Now, an Art V convention could be seized on as an opportunity for organizing extralegal change, but then Art V process obviously isn’t necessary precondition for that, just a potential opportunity.
ortusdux 1 days ago [-]
Miami too. The city is build on porous limestone. No amount of levees, seawalls, or dams will save it.
Kim_Bruning 1 days ago [-]
Right, for Miami, you might want kwelschermen (or a variant thereof: deep impermeable cutoff walls, doesn't need to be concrete, can be made by clay injection too) , californian style water injection, locks that reject salt water. Different place, different geology, different tools. No place is exactly the same.
Thing is I figure you need some form of water board to manage it. A political entity that's all about "here we are and here we stay". Once they're set up they're pretty reliable (there's one that's still paying interest on a 370-year old bond https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfSIC8jwbQs )
Leonard_of_Q 22 hours ago [-]
Put dikes around it, make channels to collect the seepage, pump water out of channels over the dikes into the sea. Problem solved in the same way the Netherlands has been solving this problem for many centuries.
The pumps can run on solar power with some diesel backups for when the sun doesn't co-operate. As long as the system is kept in good shape and the channels are kept open Miami can lie several meters under sea level without the need for further action. The house I lived in in the Netherlands was at -4.5 m below sea level, it is still standing and will remain doing so if history can be a guide.
mapotofu 11 hours ago [-]
I imagine this type of system is not designed for large, sudden and prolonged inundation of water, something New Orleans faces from seasonal hurricanes and their storm surges. Or maybe it is and it’s just a question of magnitude?
selimthegrim 20 hours ago [-]
The problem is saltwater intrusion into the drinking water table - a problem New Orleans only has one when it comes up the Mississippi river - Miami is a whole different level
Leonard_of_Q 17 hours ago [-]
That can be solved using desalination of seawater, an energy-intensive process which is tailor-made for the abundance of solar power in the area. If for some reason desalination is not deemed sufficient it may be possible to slow the seepage by creating deep barriers between coast and land [1]. If this results in groundwater emergence so much the better, just pump it out and send it to the water treatment plant. Excess water can be pumped elsewhere, either over the dikes or into the ground outside the dikes or wherever else it may be needed or beneficial. Since pumps are needed anyway the criticism in the article - reliance on pumps is costly and can lead to a point of failure in flood mitigation plans - is negated. Also, pumps have been used as part of flood mitigation plans for centuries in places like the Netherlands so there is a lot of data to be found for those who need it.
Yet those in the know keep building there. Weird isn’t it?
mattnewton 1 days ago [-]
They are betting they can sell the bag before the music stops.
estearum 1 days ago [-]
Uhh... "those in the know" are the actuaries and if you were to take away the subsidies provided for homeowners and developers to deny basic mathematical facts, the entire area would be totally unbuildable already.
Funny, I thought the USA was paranoid about this kind of socialism. I guess they are on the hook for some big and inevitable payouts.
estearum 18 hours ago [-]
USA loves socialism in most forms that benefit landowners
misiti3780 1 days ago [-]
i work in insure tech, in the E&S space, which is where all of the flood and wind polices gets placed. Actuaries have nothing to do with it --- the cost of hurricane insurance comes from Moody's RMS and Verisk AIR, the only two CAT models the carriers and re-insurance companies use. Actuaries price the non-cat risk.
estearum 18 hours ago [-]
This is mostly a pedantic point that it's not actuaries doing the pricing, but a different set of risk analysts using a different suite of tools, right?
misiti3780 16 hours ago [-]
It's two monte carlo models that get refreshed every few years.
estearum 16 hours ago [-]
[Edit] The following comment can be read very snarkily but that is not the intention. I'm legitimately interested + curious:
Very interesting! Does it affect the point that insurers (even if not actuaries) put a high price on this risk and that the price is subsequently suppressed by government insurance subsidies?
misiti3780 14 hours ago [-]
Local governments have obvious incentives to encourage building, but the state of Florida itself does subsidize flood and hurricane insurance.
If you own a house or building in Florida and have a mortgage, you're required to carry it. Here's how a policy gets priced:
You go to a retail broker with your info. They pass it to a wholesaler, who puts the submission out into the market for quotes. Any carrier or MGA that wants the business prices the CAT and AOP (non-CAT) portions separately. Actuaries build models for the AOP side, while Verisk and Moody's model the CAT portion. Those two numbers get added together, plus some fees — and that's your annual premium.
From there, the insurers buy reinsurance on their portfolios. The reinsurers run those same models, do their magic, and come up with their own price.
Just an example, because no major hurricanes have hit the south east in a while, premiums are down 30% right now. All of the insurance companies are getting squeezed.
deadbabe 1 days ago [-]
Engineers will find a solution, they always do if there is sufficient motivation.
kibwen 1 days ago [-]
This is a statement of religious faith, not a statement of fact. Engineering is not magic, it is where physical reality crashes into economic reality.
Leonard_of_Q 22 hours ago [-]
No, it is a realistic approach to a problem which has been facing many places elsewhere in the world where it has been solved using engineering. It is far more apt to call climate doom predictions statements of religious faith given the history of engineering solutions to climate-related problems and the close resemblance of climate doom preachers to those deriving their prophecies from scripture.
Here's a few books on the subject which might be of interest for those who want to widen their view on the ever-changing climate. All of them have in common that they do not deny the climate is changing nor that human activities influence how it changes. Where they differ from the doom narrative is that they approach climate change in the way humans have dealt with other environmental problems to lessen or negate their impact instead of by preaching some grand narrative on how society should be run to avoid catastrophe.
Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All by Michael Shellenberger
According to Wikipedia, tourism makes up of 40% of the tax revenue in New Orleans.
That could grow even higher if they think of an interesting and unusual solution for sea level rise.
How about a floating city of some kind? Alternatively, go in the other direction and rebuild the city underwater.
trunkiedozer 1 days ago [-]
It’s already below sea level isn’t it?
tim333 13 hours ago [-]
I'm not sure on the math on this one. Google says:
>Global sea levels are currently rising at an accelerating rate, measuring roughly 3.6–4.6 mm per year
so in say 30 years time at the higher figure you have 30*4.6mm = 13.8 cm
The sea is broadly at sea level so it's going to be a job to get the "3-7 metres of sea-level rise"?
ArchieScrivener 1 days ago [-]
I say we wait until 2098 to start relocating so that way we can make a summer tent pole about it and pat ourselves on the back for coming together in the nick of time.
selimthegrim 6 hours ago [-]
If you employ all the unemployed film people here it's a deal.
kungpao42 14 hours ago [-]
Would any of the technology that the dutch have surrounding water control help here? Or is the geography just too complex for it to work?
endofreach 1 days ago [-]
The graham hancocks of the future are gonna go nuts finding out about this mythical new orleans
JojoFatsani 1 days ago [-]
NOLA is worth saving.
selimthegrim 15 hours ago [-]
You and I and egypturnash know this but good luck with the rest of this crowd.
sjs382 13 hours ago [-]
The energy, the community, the corruption, the vibrance, the hopelessness, the resilience, the city that care forgot. You can't relocate New Orleans.
I know it's "gatekeeping" but it's so difficult to talk about with those who haven't had their every day consumed by it.
mplanchard 11 hours ago [-]
Most of my family is there, and I spent much of my childhood there. I have the same feeling as you. It’s such a beautiful, unique place, and I don’t think the locals will ever abandon it. City park with those beautiful oak trees will always be one of my favorite places on earth.
1 days ago [-]
johnea 1 days ago [-]
I'm almost surprised to see these comments unflagged 8-/
What a disaster in progress in Louisiana.
> Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost 2,000 sq miles of land to coastal erosion, equivalent to the size of Delaware,
Having been born and raised in the mid-atlantic, I empathize.
If the article is read, while replacing every instance of the word "could", with the words "will not", I think it also states a pretty factual assessment of what will happen...
1 days ago [-]
snthpy 22 hours ago [-]
A bit OT but what about the Netherlands?
CWwdcdk7h 17 hours ago [-]
No hurricanes there, so I guess they can just slowly rebuild walls to keep up with sea level and increase number of pumps already used to get rid of excess rainwater. Not great but manageable as long they secure enough money.
snthpy 15 hours ago [-]
Aha interesting. Thanks!
selimthegrim 1 days ago [-]
One of the authors warned me this paper was coming (I live in New Orleans) but he assured me he still has a house with a mortgage here. As the article says, none of us will be alive to see it.
adi_kurian 1 days ago [-]
New Orleans no longer, would be a fucking tragedy.
"America has only three cities: New York, San Francisco, and New Orleans. Everywhere else is Cleveland"
misiti3780 1 days ago [-]
Miami is not Cleveland, and SF sucks.
alexilliamson 1 days ago [-]
Perhaps you misundestand the Tennessee Williams quote. He's not saying that Miami is literally in Ohio, just that is has no character.
misiti3780 16 hours ago [-]
it has more character that SF
adi_kurian 1 days ago [-]
Agreed. Miami is in Florida.
misiti3780 1 days ago [-]
stick to software, you have no career in comedy.
adi_kurian 1 days ago [-]
That's a bit harsh mate.
glass1122 1 days ago [-]
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pjdkoch 1 days ago [-]
Finally, Ben Shapiro is going to buy that real estate for a bargain! /s
platevoltage 24 hours ago [-]
I was looking for this comment.
aaron695 1 days ago [-]
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onetokeoverthe 1 days ago [-]
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taejavu 1 days ago [-]
Weren't the Maldives supposed to be underwater like 15 years ago? Seems like the sea is rising much slower than models predicted?
almost like NOAA, had it not been savaged by this current anti-science admin, would be able to lend further credibility here. As it stands, several researchers that I know of, formerly of NOAA, were banging this drum loudly for decades.
Sadder, still, to know that nothing will be done. No one will be relocated. Just one day a weather event like a hurricane will happen to destroy the area and it will be labeled derelict with no funds to rebuild. People will be left to fend for themselves.
actually, i think you have it exactly backward. anybody who lives in the areas expected to be affected can move now, starting tomorrow. make a 6 month plan to move. a year. make a three year plan to move. but they won't. then when a disaster does strike, there will be funds made available to help them, but they will complain that it's not enough, that they deserve more, why, look at all the hopes and dreams they poured into the neighborhood as evidenced by the savings, investments, and preparations they have made...
you are preaching helplessness and they're eager to learn it.
Unfortunately though, the solution isn’t that easy.
For one, if you own property there, you’re basically either caught holding a bag with life changing amounts of money lost, or trying to pass it off to another sucker which just feels unethical.
For two, families and communities make it hard for people. Many rely on their friends and family as support systems. Elderly for example, may only have their family taking care of them and their poker night friends are the only ones they have left - if they go somewhere, that system becomes fragmented and people get left behind. Maybe you are the main caretaker of an elderly relative, so you can’t leave them behind, but if they follow you then they lose the rest of their network.
I’m sure there are tons of other reasons but just knowing there’s an imminent threat at some vague point in the future is sometimes not enough for people to willingly go through all of the suffering that I mentioned above, and more that I’m not metioning
• The state identifies neighborhoods that will need to be abandoned in a few decades and puts them in a program to turn them into retirement communities. A person who owns a home in such an area can sell it normally if they want to anyone who will buy.
• If an elderly retired person is interested in a property in that area they have the option of instead of buying it themselves from the seller having the state buy the property, and they then pay the state. The state gets title to the property and the retiree gets the right to live in it until they die.
• If the retired person wants to leave before they die (or has to leave because they can no longer live on their own or the time has finally come that the property must be abandoned), they are offered free room and board for life at a state managed assisted living community.
• If they left for a reason other than that the property has to be abandoned the state opens it up to another retired elderly person on the same terms. The new person pays what a similar property in a place not under threat would sell for, and they are now set for housing for the rest of their life as long as they stay there or transfer to state managed assistant living.
• To further make these properties attractive to elderly retirees the residents should not have to pay property taxes and utility rates should be capped. Maybe also toss in a free shuttle service to minimize the need for cars so people don't have to leave just because they are no longer able to drive safely.
Usually there is no insurance.
The insurance industry, for all of its other faults, is one of the few left that still deals in reality instead of vibes so they aren't going to give you affordable insurance against floods/hurricanes/etc in these areas with any real coverage.
I have a house in Louisiana (up "north") - outside of a couple tornados every few years, and the heavy rains of a hurricane every few years, it is a fairly "safe" place. Never been a claim against the property, or any immediate neighbors. We aren't in a floodplain of any sort, and are on top of a hill that is around 120 feet above the closest creek.
My premium has gone up 250% over the last 3 years (after being steady for a decade). Shopping around, they are even higher. I think they are finally starting to catch up with where they needed to be for years, but I can't help but feel I'm offsetting the people "down south" with their more expensive property that is literally underwater.
I am not sure about Louisiana, but you very well may be.
State insurance commissions sometimes promulgate onerous regulations that effectively require cost shifting. For example, if it's profitable to keep operating in a state overall, but you can't raise premiums or drop policies for the riskiest properties, then you just raise premiums across the board and let the less-risky subsidize the unprofitable policies.
And rising reinsurance premiums mean that everybody pays more to account for increasing risks and costs in the insurers' portfolios, which may be concentrated in riskier areas far from your own property.
People in New Orleans have affordable flood insurance?
every day you wait this gets worse and I am not sure what is unethical about selling a home. many people have to move (e.g. for work) but if it would put you mind at ease (ethically speaking) you can put a disclaimer on the listing. of course you also have an entire political party followers who believe all this is a hoax so you can put that on the listing too /s (last sentence)
but notice people can gain life changing amounts of money by lucking into real estate that soars, but there's no sense of injustice.
if you allow people to take risks and reap the benefits, but shield them from loss, you end up with a subprime mortgage crisis all over again.
if people wanted to be protected from loss they should have to sign up on the front end to risk pool with other people who want to be protected from loss, and together they can protect each other by limiting gains jointly
I mean, yes, in your seller's disclosures you should tell the truth, including about the flood risk. If people want to take that, eyes wide open, I'm not sure what's unethical about selling to them.
The flooding and inevitable destruction of the city is decades away. It's still abstract. Some people might even think it is preventable.
I don't think it's unethical to sell. People have their own motivations. Maybe a buyer just wants it for 5 years, who knows. Probably the risk will get baked into market price. What does need to happen though is the federal government needs to step up, because they're the only ones who can, and guarantee they will buy it for a certain percentage of appraised market value. I would imagine that percentage will decline over time until they declare the city a total loss, after which your property is declared worthless. If they do this now, they can make it possible for people to leave with some semblance of dignity and mitigate hardships.
This sort of puffery is relatively minor and is thus not tremendously unethical, but it is unethical.
what exactly is a lie in this context specifically I wonder?
Is this so difficult that you can't even detect your own lie specifically constructed as an example of it?
But it's not really a solution on a population level. For one, if everyone sold their house because it'll soon be underwater, who'd they sell their house to? Aquaman? For two, a lot of people just won't be able to afford an expense like that. A large portion of the US lives paycheck to paycheck, and it's not easy to "just save up" a few hundred thousand when that means giving up on basic necessities.
When you're genuinely poor, your local community is a critical survival tool that can't be discarded. You've spent your whole life building a set of relationships through mutual help. When your car dies and you can't afford to go to a mechanic, you have a friend of a friend who can fix cars who owes you one since you helped replace his fence a few years back. That kind of thing, but every day, in a hundred ways.
Throwing that out to move to a city where you have nothing is a great way to end up homeless.
Nobody is making them move, but moving out of New Orleans certainly seems like the better play, even if it carries risk.
Moving as a renter isn’t free. You’ll need to come up with a security deposit and coming up with two months of rent at once is not easy. Your slumlord landlord is going to keep your old one regardless of merit or law, so don’t think you can use that money. Convincing a new landlord that you’re a good risk is also not going to be easy when you’ve just moved and don’t have a job, so you’re looking at spending on a hotel for a while unless you’re lucky enough to know someone well enough to couch surf.
The poor and homeless of Louisiana are already receiving massive benefits: 4th in the country for the share of households on welfare, 18% of the population on food stamps, $14B+ in FY23 of federal dollars went to welfare/TANF/Medicaid/etc.
For welfare, consider that a single parent with two school-age children who earns $11,000 annually from part-time work ends up qualifying for $64,128 in cash, aid, and benefits.
The same family earning $64,128 by actually working wouldn’t be eligible for any of these welfare benefits in four-fifths of the states.
Gently, you talk like someone who's never even been broke, let alone been poor.
Sell to whomever - but again, what property do they have if they are so poor they can’t afford a $75 bus ticket with notice?
It’s always a Schrödinger’s poor person who simultaneously has a valuable property that’s also worthless, tied to a job but has 0 income, has a car but can’t travel, and is broke but can’t qualify for the plethora of government benefits they can receive anywhere.
Why do people have these blinders where they can’t view any issue except from the perspective of the minority of people who don’t have any resources? Why are so many people moving to places like Florida that are threatened by climate change?
I believe its because these people are young and repeating what they hear or they are old but have lived an insulated life and assume that people really cannot handle any upset in their life.
You’re basically saying, why are you so worried about all of these people who will have their lives destroyed when there are a bunch of other people who will be totally fine? I hope that when it’s put that way, you can see how ridiculous it is.
New Orleans is going to be underwater. That problem won't just affect poor people, it will affect everyone. So the first order of business is to encourage anyone who can do so to leave New Orleans to go somewhere that isn't underwater. That's the policy that's going to avoid the greatest amount of harm to the greatest number of people at the lowest cost.
We aren't discussing this particular group because we're a too emotional to think straight. We're discussing this group because it's the one that will bear the brunt of the suffering and it's the one where there isn't an obvious "just let them figure it out and it'll be fine" solution.
Ah, right: it's a small percentage of the population, so we should just let them die, "and decrease the surplus population", right?
This kind of callousness is one of the biggest problem with the tech industry today. We learned to think in numbers, and some of us never learned to think about the people behind those numbers.
Yes, there are some kinds of problem where you really have to think about the numbers, and not the people, because if you try to save everyone you will end up saving no one.
This is not one of those.
The people who can move now, without financial hardship, get to make their own choices about when and whether to get out. The people we, as a society, should be thinking about are the people who cannot get out—either without financial ruination, or at all—because they are the ones we as a society must help.
Tragically, given the state of America today, we aren't likely to help them. And many of them are likely to die, whether by drowning when the next Hurricane Katrina inundates New Orleans, or by slow starvation and disease when they and everyone else in their community and support network are left homeless.
This is exactly the problematic thinking I’m talking about. Your obsession with using society to help those whose problems are the most intractable leads you to conclude to majority should be left “to make their own choices.”
But the most effective use of social action is helping the majority. They can benefit from social organization and their problems are tractable. Here, leaving the majority to its own devices is going to cause the most damage in the long run. Society should push them to make good choices and relocate in an orderly manner while there’s time.
Even for reasonably-stable middle-class people, moving—especially out of a place like NOLA—is going to cause financial hardship.
In any given year, 15% of the population moves, and 40% of them move to a different county. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/why-people-mo.... It's insane to say that most people wouldn't be able to make a once-in-a-lifetime move just a couple of towns over sometime over the next few decades.
There will need to be a federal bailout to relocate everyone who needs help. The government should also probably announce a policy that there will be no future disaster relief that involves rebuilding, only relocating.
New Orleans will be the first, but not the last American city to collapse. Miami is probably next. Salt Lake City could very well run out of water, nevermind the increasingly toxic lakebed. Phoenix too. In the next hundred years people are going to learn why environmentalists use the word "sustainability" so much.
It’s not why are you so worried about all of these people who will have their lives destroyed when there are a bunch of other people who will be totally fine
It’s Why aren’t you worried about everyone having their life destroyed, if we can encourage people to move it may be challenging for them but it will save their lives.
And people bring it up because a lot of folks in New Orleans couldn't afford to flee Katrina and 700 people died. It was kind of an enormous humanitarian disaster. If we don't talk about it, nothing will happen to stop it.
I have no expectation that we’ll be willing to invest in our neighbors, though.
It doesn't even matter, really.
Suppose one person follows the sage advice of the HN glibertarians, sells his house and moves out. Good for him. But does this solve the problem? No, because now there's someone else there. Possibly a more desperate, poorer person. They can't all follow your advice, no more than they can all be best in their high school class, run the fastest in the marathon, or being on the winning side of a prediction market bet.
The reason people don't move is that for the time being, they're much, much better off than if they move. Especially if they start moving in large numbers.
Then they will look for someone to blame. The usual scape goats are the government and society.
Society fucked up, and that fuck up is gonna affect a lot of people who are not able to move out. Some sort of bailout will be needed.
Like clockwork ;)
Haha. I'm gonna guess you're not American.
Somewhere above sea level?
People should live wherever they want but is rude to expect others to be responsible for thei expectedly risky flooding, fires, earthquake, hurricane lifestyle.
New Orleans is a major economic center for them so I hope they lose it and are impoverished forever.
If you don’t like the politics you should leave.
If you can’t I grieve for you.
If you can but love the region then you need to take the good with the bad.
If you enjoy the political leaning and live there I’ll throw you a barbell once you start drowning.
I’ve already had to move from my home region for economics and it’s seeming like I’ll need to leave my new home again so I am not saying this from the position of someone whose never been forced to leave.
You're part of the problem here.
If New Orleans is extremely blue, but can contribute nothing but political power to authoritarian assholes, then they need to leave or figure out someway to fight.
Sucks to suck, but the liberal Louisianians arent helping atm.
Southern states have been stripping people's rights away for decades.
In ways I can not articulate on US social media sites without being permabanned.
If you are giving power to the authoritarians and doing nothing to stop it, then you are effectively the gasoline in my enemies tanks. I wish it wasn't so, but that is how reality is.
Doesn’t even follow the line of common law legal system the rest of the states use and is based on some French legal ancestry.
Mardi Gras is celebrated all along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Pensacola. Go to a parade in Alabama, for example, and every third or fourth person will be from New Orleans - looking to escape the tourist nightmare their city becomes.
In other words, hopefully nowhere ;)
Every king cake I've ever had was in Shreveport, but you and I both know tourists won't be flying there.
People have seen this coming for a long time. Here's a classic article about the channelization of the Mississippi by John McPhee from 1987: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20636254
Well discussing it was de facto banned on HN for many years (still wouldn't be surprised if this post disappears soon).
Any climate change post that was anything other than "everything is fine because of electric vehicles/solar/wind/etc", especially if it dare suggest that the situation was dire, would quickly get 'flagged' by the vocal minority (but still surprisingly large group of people) on HN who don't want to believe in climate change. Years ago, on different accounts, I would complain about HN's status-quo enforcing censorship logic, only to be boo'd away. This community is, at it's heart, one that has been a part of the process of encouraging climate change.
I stopped complaining when I realized that nobody is seriously interested in tackling climate change (where you have to keep fossil fuels in the ground), so we're going to experience the full consequences of it (and yes, it does pose an existential risk). The annoying part is that people will continue to deny anything is happening no matter how aggressively visible real the impacts are.
At this point there really is no reason to discuss climate change any more, most people really can't deal with the reality of what it represents (even people who think they are 'green').
Here, I’ll say it right now: climate change is real, it has deleterious effects on our world, and we should take collective action to mitigate or even reverse it.
Now, there’s an expectation that commenters conduct themselves appropriately and contribute to the overall well being of this site. If a person misbehaves when discussing this or any topic, that’s when they get spanked.
seems a little strong, but I understand why they say this
> climate change is real, it has deleterious effects on our world, and we should take collective action to mitigate or even reverse it.
plenty of comments on HN to this day will disagree, saying climate change is some anti-progress conspiracy or hasn't been studied enough or won't be that bad, etc etc.
Also, due to the risks associated with climate change, doing something now as a societal insurance policy is prudent. Not to mention that polluters are necessarily infringing on the property and human rights of everyone else.
And over the...I dunno, something like 9 years? I've been here, I have observed a distinct but gradual shift to the left in the overall tenor of conversation. Things do change, even here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2140747-laws-of-mathema...
> “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,” said Turnbull [the Prime Minster of Australia]
Like in The Netherlands?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Works
The museum convinced me that New Orleans is doomed in so many ways. Everything from the Atchafalaya ORCS to the paving over of wetlands to build the city to the destruction of the Plaquemines marsh lands to the southeast of the city all seem to be maximally unhelpful for preventing storm damage.
Even the biggest ultra conservative GOP voting redneck will have to admit that America can't survive without NYC which is why it will get it's seawall.
What I get is New Orleans has an unique culture and history. Most people in the US dont think it is worth to preserve?
What they really want to preserve is stuff like this: https://www.youtube.com/live/mHljI5JbnTM?si=dReL9sZKiqtNlvpr...
Something like saving New Orleans probably doesn't stand a chance.
New Orleans is probably going to be a fairly small island 20 miles offshore that gets drowned by hurricanes every few years.
This project in NYC has been going on for a bit. The difference is LA has a GDP of about $340B+, while NY has a GDP of $2.3T+.
For local stuff like this, the US isn't a country, it's 50 countries in a trenchcoat, and Louisiana is very different from New York.
I wish I was joking...
I don't normally interact with people that believe that. But from a distance it looks like the second half is about as important as the first.
IMO any eschatological beliefs whatsoever should be 100% universally disqualifying for any political or military position, no matter what book title or special ancient zombie character they're filed under.
“Even if you stopped climate change today, New Orleans’s days are still numbered,” he added. “It will be surrounded by open water, and you can’t keep an island situated below sea level afloat. There’s no amount of money that can do that.”
Type 1 is often an island situated below sea level.
For instance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flevopolder . Island. Surrounded by open water because that's actually a good idea. Below sea level. 400 000 inhabitants. 2 cities, major agriculture, minor airport.
Ever wanted to grab dinner on the sea floor? Visit Almere Center. Though lots of people find it to be a bit boring in person.
Want the same sort of thing in the US? Consider dropping the Jones act. Right now it's illegal to bring the equipment that builds these things into the US.
So a crane like this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvicq-kvVbw ; it picks thing up and sets thing back down. In US waters? Verboten ("nee meneer, helaas verboden", in this case). Sure there's workarounds with barges sometimes; but it gets silly.
Or this rather large 'bulldozer' (a trailing suction hopper dredger) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhysyOJHY8A . Move mud from spot where it's unwanted to spot where it's needed. Operates in coastal/river areas. Fixes dunes, replenishes beaches, creates walls, places landfill; all at scale. Builds things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palm_Islands, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansai_International_Airport, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maasvlakte_2 .
Jones act and more specifically dredge act even: you're moving stuff inside US territorial waters.
Both cases it's not (or barely) made in the US, and you can't hire the big crews from elsewhere. There's no competition, and this has resulted in no incentive to learn, keep up or even try.
NB Heritage foundation on some of this: https://www.heritage.org/trade/commentary/113-year-old-law-h...
Addressing climate change requires massive changes and a lot of political courage. There is none.
While there is a legal process for amending the Constitution which, as you note, is likely intractable in the status quo conditions, Constitutional change—whether peaceful (even if there is the implicit consequence of force if compromise is not reached) or not—historically and globally is often an extralegal process that is retrospectively legalized, rather than a legal process under pre-existing rules.
Now, an Art V convention could be seized on as an opportunity for organizing extralegal change, but then Art V process obviously isn’t necessary precondition for that, just a potential opportunity.
Thing is I figure you need some form of water board to manage it. A political entity that's all about "here we are and here we stay". Once they're set up they're pretty reliable (there's one that's still paying interest on a 370-year old bond https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfSIC8jwbQs )
[1] https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/hardening-shorelines-ma...
https://www.floodsmart.gov/
Very interesting! Does it affect the point that insurers (even if not actuaries) put a high price on this risk and that the price is subsequently suppressed by government insurance subsidies?
If you own a house or building in Florida and have a mortgage, you're required to carry it. Here's how a policy gets priced:
You go to a retail broker with your info. They pass it to a wholesaler, who puts the submission out into the market for quotes. Any carrier or MGA that wants the business prices the CAT and AOP (non-CAT) portions separately. Actuaries build models for the AOP side, while Verisk and Moody's model the CAT portion. Those two numbers get added together, plus some fees — and that's your annual premium.
From there, the insurers buy reinsurance on their portfolios. The reinsurers run those same models, do their magic, and come up with their own price.
Just an example, because no major hurricanes have hit the south east in a while, premiums are down 30% right now. All of the insurance companies are getting squeezed.
Here's a few books on the subject which might be of interest for those who want to widen their view on the ever-changing climate. All of them have in common that they do not deny the climate is changing nor that human activities influence how it changes. Where they differ from the doom narrative is that they approach climate change in the way humans have dealt with other environmental problems to lessen or negate their impact instead of by preaching some grand narrative on how society should be run to avoid catastrophe.
Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All by Michael Shellenberger
https://www.amazon.com/Apocalypse-Never-Environmental-Alarmi...
False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet by Bjorn Lomborg
https://www.amazon.com/False-Alarm-Climate-Change-Trillions/...
Unsettled (Updated and Expanded Edition): What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters by Steven E. Koonin
https://www.amazon.com/Unsettled-Updated-Expanded-Climate-Sc...
https://www.nbcmiami.com/investigations/miami-beach-resilien...
That could grow even higher if they think of an interesting and unusual solution for sea level rise.
How about a floating city of some kind? Alternatively, go in the other direction and rebuild the city underwater.
>Global sea levels are currently rising at an accelerating rate, measuring roughly 3.6–4.6 mm per year
so in say 30 years time at the higher figure you have 30*4.6mm = 13.8 cm
The sea is broadly at sea level so it's going to be a job to get the "3-7 metres of sea-level rise"?
I know it's "gatekeeping" but it's so difficult to talk about with those who haven't had their every day consumed by it.
What a disaster in progress in Louisiana.
> Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost 2,000 sq miles of land to coastal erosion, equivalent to the size of Delaware,
Having been born and raised in the mid-atlantic, I empathize.
If the article is read, while replacing every instance of the word "could", with the words "will not", I think it also states a pretty factual assessment of what will happen...
"America has only three cities: New York, San Francisco, and New Orleans. Everywhere else is Cleveland"
Plenty of info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Maldives
Of note, most of the country no longer has fresh groundwater, and 50% of the national budget goes to climate mitigation.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1